Supply Chains

Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”

What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment, and climate outlooks. Why It Matters: In recessions, trucking

What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment and climate outlooks.

New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging

Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year,

We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.

Some are already beginning to worry about the Inflation Reduction Act “crowding out” investment by the private sector. Yet the private sector is seeing things differently. In the most recent earnings call from major US steel producer Cleveland Cliffs, spending from the IRA was explicitly cited as a reason to

The Fed is worried about PCE Core Services ex-Housing (CSXHP) because it sees this category as the least likely to see disinflationary progress owing to wage pressures. However—as we have pointed out—CSXHP is composed of...