December 2024 SEP Dot Projections
Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.
Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.
Now that rate normalization is about to move into the next, slower phase, it is important that they do not predetermine the scale of normalization.
A lot of Fedspeak this week, enough to firm up our view that there will be a cut in December, with a January pause.
The labor market is treading water at this point. It’s not drowning, but it’s unclear how long it can remain in this state.
If policy is to have a significant impact on medical services inflation, and by extension aggregate inflation, it is not enough to only tackle costs in the public sector. Policy needs to ensure cost control in the private sector as well.