Paid-members
March 2025 FOMC Preview
The Fed faces risk from multiple directions and is experiencing a high level of uncertainty. Our baseline scenario sees the hawks mostly unchanged and the doves to consolidate towards two cuts for 2025.
Labor Market Recap February 2025: Shadow Slack is Rising
So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.