Inflation Expectations

Summary Following today’s PPI release, we are updating our nowcast by +2bps to +34bps m/m and by −1bp to 3.09% for the y/y September core PCE reading (a correction to the 3.12% y/y figure in our earlier email). We maintain our base case that

Summary Month-over-month core PCE came in at +25bps (vs 28bps nowcast) while the year-over-year core PCE reading came in at 3.01% (vs 3.14% nowcast). While headlines noted that today's reading were a downside miss, the month-over-month core PCE reading was

Summary Core PCE came in at +25bps for the month-over-month July reading, a highly uncharacteristic 9 basis point miss. Our miss primarily stemmed from healthcare, airfares, and tax preparation services. We will be implementing improved nowcasting techniques next month and look forward to being back on track. A