Federal Reserve

Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.

Powell did his best to be as boring as possible during Humphrey Hawkins, but he distinguished himself from some more hawkish statements from other committee members over the past few weeks.

While no one revealed anything new about their expectations for the timing or size of rate cuts this year, the committee was keen on trying to downplay the hot January 2024 data.

Across the board, from presumed hawks to doves, the message from committee members this week is fairly unified: they are spooked by January's inflation data.

In an extended conversation at NABE on Friday, Daly provided a lot of insight into her thinking. There was a lot to like in her answers.

The rest of the committee speaks in a near-unified voice: we can be patient with cuts.

Statements by Bowman, Goolsbee, and Powell this week revealed little we didn't already know.