Federal Reserve

This is the fourth post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, and Part 3 discusses the Fed's inflation and supply shock

This week, FOMC members continue to project confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the risk of a recession from tariff policy, at least long enough to allow the Fed to figure out what to do.

This is the third post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity to learn valuable lessons and apply those lessons in a forward-looking manner. By revising its

The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.

Last week's data leaves our take on the FOMC meeting unchanged. There are updated charts and tables with labor market and inflation data from the previous week.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.

The Fedspeak this week is still: wait and see, and we care most about keeping inflation under control.

This is the second post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity to learn valuable lessons and apply those lessons in a forward-looking manner. By revising its framework accordingly, Fed policy can be more