The Investment Picture: July 2023
This is the first in a recurring series on what the underlying detail tables can tell us about the path of investment across the broader macroeconomy.
This is the first in a recurring series on what the underlying detail tables can tell us about the path of investment across the broader macroeconomy.
Note: We have retracted a previous version of this Research Report. This is a republished version with a correction and clarification in the discussion of how financial subsidy...
We are seeing an economy that is still growing, slowing, and stabilizing as businesses come to understand the dynamics of the post-pandemic environment. With that said, we might be close to the end of the downswing part of “normalization”.
Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”
In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...