Inflation

April 30, 2025 by Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

March 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Anticipating March Weakness and Sharp February Revisions.

Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like...

Paid-members

March 2025 Core-Cast Post-IPI: Our PCE Nowcasts Move Up By ~ 2bps

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation IPI Nowcast Data Recap Systematic Monitors

Paid-members

March 2025 Inflation Preview: The Calm Before The Storm Begins

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Preview Data Systematic Monitors CPI

The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 1: What Should the Fed Do About Tariff Inflation?

Skanda Amarnath — 9 min read

Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and...

Fed Framework Fed Policy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Tariffs Labor Markets Inflation

February 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: We Saw The Upside. And We May See More Upside In The Next Few Months

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price,...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Systematic Monitors Data Recap PCE Nowcast

March 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Anticipating March Weakness and Sharp February Revisions.

March 2025 Core-Cast Post-IPI: Our PCE Nowcasts Move Up By ~ 2bps

March 2025 Inflation Preview: The Calm Before The Storm Begins

The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 1: What Should the Fed Do About Tariff Inflation?

February 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: We Saw The Upside. And We May See More Upside In The Next Few Months

Subscribe to new posts.