Jobs Day

After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.

The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.

In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.

After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.

The labor market is really softening now.

The September 2023 labor market data continued to show a strong labor market. The headline unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%, and the establishment survey showed an eye-popping 336,000 jobs added in September—alongside an upwards revision of 79,000 and 40,000 jobs in July and August.