Labor Markets

Following up on our publication of "real-time" payroll growth time series that cut through data revision issues (see more here) , we are now publishing regular updates of our forward-looking payrolls views to our MacroSuite subscribers. Feb 2025 Baseline Views (Assume No Revisions) * Nonfarm Payrolls: +160k monthly gain. We

The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.

Today’s data update takes a closer look at the manufacturing data within the most recent Employment Situation release.

The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.