Nowcast

Summary & Discussion Core and Supercore PCE delivered a major downside surprise in the final PCE release for April, but. more than half of the downside surprise was offset by upside revisions to Q1 inflation. The net result was just a 3bp decline in Core PCE year-over-year readings

Summary We thought we were penciling in sufficiently strong readings for the PPI inputs in March but apparently not enough. We've marked up our y/y and m/m readings for Core PCE in March by 4bps (26bps->30bps m/m, 3.13%->3.17% y/

Summary We pride ourselves on being among the closest in our forecasts / nowcasts of Core PCE, especially after receiving all of the relevant information from CPI, PPI, and import prices. January proved to be an uncharacteristic miss for us (8-9bps too high on Core PCE). We would be suspicious