Supply Chains
A quickstart guide for reading the monitor and an explanation of why this monitor is necessary and the role it can play in improving discussion of macroeconomic policy.
Each month, we publish a public version of the donor-exclusive Supply Chain Monitor to better inform macroeconomic discussion about developments on the “supply side.”
Summary Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, efforts to secure the supply of energy transition commodities have intensified considerably. The Biden Administration has announced prizes, research and development initiatives, and loans for recovery projects to improve the U.S. supply chain for critical minerals. Other advanced economies are
Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMIs are consistent with a soft landing through repaired supply chains and the conclusion of bullwhip dynamics.
Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of price deceleration warrants a deeper dive. If the Fed's role in achieving disinflation runs through "cooling real demand,"
Last Update: Thursday, August 16, 2023 Next Update: Friday, September 1, 2023 This is the Final Supply Chain Monitor in this exact format. Starting in September, newsletter subscribers will receive updated monitors as each data source comes out, along with commentary that focuses on how each new data release impacts
We are seeing an economy that is still growing, slowing, and stabilizing as businesses come to understand the dynamics of the post-pandemic environment. With that said, we might be close to the end of the downswing part of “normalization”.
From the outset, I should say that I am a bigger skeptic of productivity data than most. Once you know how the sausage is made, you will be more skeptical of how it is typically served to customers. Nevertheless, I'm about to lay out three reasons, based on
As everyone is watching for signs of recession, some are warning that weakness in surveys like the ISM Manufacturing PMIs indicate an imminent recession. Since expectations play a major (and multi-faceted, as one can have expectations about all sorts of things) role in investment and employment...