PCE
Summary & Discussion After Kevin Warsh's professed interest in Trimmed Mean PCE at his confirmation hearing, we published updated nowcasts for all PCE inflation gauges, including Trimmed Mean and Median inflation, as well as updated estimates for Headline, Core, and Supercore PCE. Compared to those nowcasts, we didn&
Summary We pride ourselves on being among the closest in our forecasts / nowcasts of Core PCE, especially after receiving all of the relevant information from CPI, PPI, and import prices. January proved to be an uncharacteristic miss for us (8-9bps too high on Core PCE). We would be suspicious of
Summary The December PCE release came with very few surprises relative to our models, in what is a confusing schedule of data releases and one-off revisions. Core PCE was 1bp lower on a month-over-month basis for December relative to what we anticipated for this release (0.36% m/m realized
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all