A soft landing consensus for CPI? The forecasting consensus is sticking close to its November predictions, with a 0.3% increase expected for core CPI (falling from 6% to 5.7% year-over-year) and -0.1% for headline CPI (falling from 7.1%...
Though they may proclaim otherwise, the Fed is aiming for a recessionary labor market. They might not succeed, they might change their minds, but buried in the Fed’s latest projections is a definite–albeit obscured–statement of intent.
Energy price volatility, which may be with us for quite some time as we pursue decarbonization, is one of our nation’s greatest macroeconomic threats.
Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due...
As Congress considers a year-end spending bill, it faces a decision that will have a meaningful effect on inflation: whether or not to extend across-the-board Medicare reimbursement rates.
