May 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Is Inflation Crushed? Not So Fast. We Foresaw The Upside That Others Missed or Ignored
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like...
The Past, Present, And Future Of Macroeconomic Policy
Overview We originally launched Employ America to confront the policy failures that plagued the decade following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC). The failure of our policymakers...
June 2025 FOMC Preview
Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite will receive our FOMC preview a week early, at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. What To Expect: The Fed...
Is There Virtually No Inflation? Tariffs Aside, We Have Another Supply Shock At The Doorstep: Electricity
If inflation feels virtually nonexistent to some, that may soon change. The May CPI release showed a much slower pace of price increases than expected. Some of that...
Labor Market Recap May 2025
The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.
