Labor Market Recap May 2025
The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.
The Same Care, Lower Cost Act Would Lower Inflation
Last month, Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced the Same Care, Lower Cost Act, which would direct the Secretary of Health and Human Services to implement site-neutral Medicare payments....
April 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: The Calm Before The Potential Storm... Was Indeed Calm
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price,...
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 4: Preparing For Inflation Risk Where Investment Is Rate-Sensitive
This is the fourth post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation...
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 3: Slicing & Dicing Inflation: The Fed Is Due For A Communications Overhaul
This is the third post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 can be...
