Fed Policy

Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage components that only come out on the

Today's data largely confirmed what we've known for some time now: the Fed's restrictive policies are restricting the level and growth of homebuilding activity in the US economy. But when we think holistically about the relevance of homebuilding to price stability, the restrictive effects

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

While still no one is willing to explicitly say it's time to go, the Fedspeak leaned dovish this week.

With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.

In this piece, we take a deeper dive into the finer details of the national accounts to gain some insight into how exactly monetary policy is restricting investment.

If the next month delivers either another round of soft inflation data, or a weak jobs report, the FOMC should be prepared to deliver a cut in July. If they continue to delay beginning rate cuts to gain certainty, they should consider a 50 bps cut for their first cut.

With the labor market still strong and April inflation representing an improvement over Q1 but still not good enough, the committee is in “looking for confidence” mode.