Federal Reserve

A light week of Fedspeak with Thanksgiving. Also released last week were the minutes from November's FOMC meeting. It's clear that neutral rate uncertainty is going to play a large role in this cutting cycle.

With another hot PCE print on the way, December is looking less-sure. No one is saying that they want to pause outright, but the door to a pause is wide open.

Powell made the headlines with his rejection of any notion that President-elect Trump could force him to leave, but beyond that the November FOMC press conference was fairly boring (in a good way).

After the excitement at the September meeting,  November is going to be relatively less exciting.

This is the last chance for Fedspeak before the pre-November meeting blackout period. This week we mostly heard from the hawkish side of the committee, all of whom are emphasizing a gradual path of rate cuts.

A quiet week of Fedspeak, with Waller and Bostic expressing disappointment in the September inflation data.

With fears of rising unemployment falling a bit with the September jobs data, the Committee's focus shifts back a bit towards inflation. As with before the September rate cut, the Committee is divided in its confidence around inflation's path back to 2%.

We had some Fedspeak this week but mostly people stuck to their previous views.