October 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: In Line With Our Nowcasts. Plausible This Marks The Start Of A Longer Run Of Upside
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage...
The Global Dimension of Inflation: Exposing The Achilles' Heel of Stabilization Policy
Summary The post-pandemic period was marked by global forces that raised inflation across all developed economies. Dominant explanations of inflation should be of a similarly global character. Policy...
No Matter What Happens, There's Still Work To Do - Employ America Beyond 2024
We take our nonpartisan public mission seriously. We do our best to highlight the threats to full employment, what public policy can do to achieve full employment, and...
November 2024 FOMC Preview
After the excitement at the September meeting, November is going to be relatively less exciting.
Labor Market Recap October 2024: A Messy Report, but the Slowing Thru-line Remains
Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.
