Fed Policy
This is a public Causal Theme post on our High-Frequency Descriptive Analysis distribution. Consider subscribing to our full distribution by reaching out to us here. Bottom Line: The current flight in deposits away from smaller banks to larger banks represents a more exogenous form of financial conditions tightening, primarily
It has now been almost exactly one year since the Fed started raising interest rates to combat inflation. When they started raising rates, the unemployment rate was at 3.6%. In February, the unemployment rate was… also at 3.6%. Even construction employment, a notoriously interest rate sensitive sector, remains
We try our best not to "bash" the Fed gratuitously; we believe that strong public institutions are important for solving society's biggest problems. But the events over the past four days should not be sugar-coated: we have a substantial Fed failure on our hands. We
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested
We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic
Citation links can be found in the PDF attached. FedspeakMonitor 031123 FedspeakMonitor_031123.pdf 404 KB download-circle Summary Table Monetary Policy Multi-Dimensional
At the Senate Banking Committee’s Humphrey Hawkins hearing on Tuesday, Senator Warren questioned Chair Powell about the implications of the Fed’s projections for unemployment, which call for an unemployment rate of 4.6% by year’s end, around an additional two million people without jobs. Powell was resistant
“For the first time, we [central bankers] have had to really study [supply chains] carefully” - Chair Powell As we have argued, a substantial portion of post-pandemic inflation can be traced to supply chain disruption. What was a loosely woven mesh pre-pandemic snapped and disconnected in different places, for