Inflation

This preview was originally released this past weekend to Premium Donors. If you would like to get the first look at this kind of content, please feel free to reach out to us here Summary: The risks for April (CPI) are tangibly to the upside, primarily because the upside risks

The Fed is worried about PCE Core Services ex-Housing (CSXHP) because it sees this category as the least likely to see disinflationary progress owing to wage pressures. However—as we have pointed out—CSXHP is composed of...

The Fed is worried about PCE Core Services ex-Housing (CSXHP) because it sees this category as the least likely to see disinflationary progress owing to wage pressures. However—as we have pointed out—CSXHP is composed of a number of components...

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk)