Federal Reserve

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested

Citation links can be found in the PDF attached. FedspeakMonitor 031123 FedspeakMonitor_031123.pdf 404 KB download-circle Summary Table Monetary Policy Multi-Dimensional

Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At

For months now, the JOLTS job openings have told a divergent story from other labor market indicators, such as quits, hires, and employment-based measures. This month’s data release is no different. While all labor market indicators show a strong labor market, the difference is one of magnitude: the

Citation links can be found in the PDF attached. If you are interested in more timely access to this content, feel free to reach out to us here. Employ America Fedspeak Monitor 3622 Employ America_Fedspeak Monitor_3.6.22.pdf 336 KB download-circle Baseline Scenario: Terminal rate projections

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.

We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI and PPI; we'll be back with an update when PCE is released. The associated heatmaps are dense, but they

We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after the PPI release, which will inevitably reshape the nowcast. The associated heatmaps are somewhat dense and intense: they give a holistic