Labor Market Recap May 2023: Renormalization
The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.
Wages
50 postsMid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We...
Labor Market Recap April 2023: The Pre-Pandemic is Not Our Ceiling
We are now at the point where many labor market utilization numbers—unemployment, employment, participation, full-time employment—are beyond pre-pandemic levels. We shouldn’t treat 2019 as a goal to return to; new highs are both possible and desirable.
White-Collar Layoffs are Starting to Show Up in the Household Survey
In our labor market recap for March 2023, I described the state of the labor market as “a goldilocks labor market, with strong employment, increasing labor supply, and...
