March Inflation Preview: Relief Growing More Likely Over The Residual Seasonality Hump
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage...
Labor Market Recap March 2024: America Stays Employed
This is overall a good jobs report. Job growth is solid, and there are no obvious signs of weakness.
Feb Core-Cast Post-PCE: Marginally Softer Than Our Nowcast & Shores Up Prospects For A June Rate Cut
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
March 2024 FOMC Recap: The Fed's Game Plan is Still Normalization
There was a lot to like from the FOMC press conference this week. Here are the highlights from Powell’s press conference.
March 2024 FOMC Preview
Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.
