December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is...
December Inflation Preview: How Much More Disinflation Can Be "Banked" Before Q1 Begins?
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
Labor Market Recap December 2023: Some Concerning Signals Under a Lot of Noise
In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.
Ten Thoughts On The Tribal “Transitory” Debate As We Enter 2024
There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations...
November Core-Cast Post-PCE: What Made The Fed Dovish A Week Ago Becomes More Visible To The Public
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
