Labor Market Recap December 2023: Some Concerning Signals Under a Lot of Noise
In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.
Ten Thoughts On The Tribal “Transitory” Debate As We Enter 2024
There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations...
November Core-Cast Post-PCE: What Made The Fed Dovish A Week Ago Becomes More Visible To The Public
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
December 2023 FOMC Preview
The Fed will hold, but will still probably not want to talk too much about 2024.
November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...